![]() ![]() Why not do that if you have the chance? Are there any historical data we can draw from about where specifically third-party or independent candidates have the biggest influence? Is it the battleground states? I’m sure they had internal polling that showed that if they were available for Republican votes, then they would get a lot of Republican votes. But it probably played a role in why Kennedy left the Democratic primary and went into the general. From my point of view, what this mainly says is he is drawing roughly equally from both of the candidates. Kennedy drew from both Biden and Trump (Biden went down 8, Trump went down 10 ) so the gap between Biden and Trump increased a couple of points due to Kennedy.įor my money, these are all within the margin of error. When Kennedy came in - and this is what many people were shocked by - he had 22% of voters saying they would vote for him. In the aggregate, they had Trump up by one point. That means the percentages really are less representative than the changes in percent although people were also interested in the fact that a lot of these battleground states had Trump doing better than expected. But an important thing to note is that this is just the battleground states, not the U.S. As everybody talked about, the nice thing about that poll is they did almost all of the combinations. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern Universityįor me, it was interesting to look at the cross-tabulations to try and see where the shifts were happening - or, at least, to try to understand which demographic groups were expressing interest in the third-party candidates. (A side note: there are reports that the Biden administration, or some factions within it, are worried by this data although one doesn’t know whether to believe such things.) Northeastern Assistant Professor of Political Science Nicholas Beauchamp. So now everyone is running around looking for context to explain it. But even with that caveat, I think it’s still larger than what most political scientists and election analysts expected. I don’t think anybody truly believes that anything close to those percentages will be reflected on Election Day. What are your thoughts on these latest numbers? What do they mean for the “third-party” effect?Įverybody’s attention seemed to be drawn to the high number of voters who said they were planning to vote for Kennedy Jr. His comments have been edited for brevity and clarity. ![]() Nick Beauchamp, assistant professor of political science at Northeastern, says it’s hard to tease out precise reasons for the apparent success of third-party options, but it’s clear their presence is already having an impact.īeauchamp spoke to Northeastern Global News about what this latest polling data might mean in the coming months for both the Trump and Biden camps. How might Kennedy disrupt the frontrunners’ chances this election cycle? If the latest polling is any indication of how the country is feeling in this moment of division - and against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars economic precarity at home and Trump’s ensuing legal battles - then the coming election promises to be a topsy-turvy affair. Kennedy Jr., a third-party candidate who recently disaffiliated with the Democratic Party to become an independent, posted stronger-than-expected poll numbers, stealing support from both Biden and Trump in the swing states. ![]() The margins are thin, but President Joe Biden has been losing support across the board - most recently among Arab Americans in response to his administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war.Īdditionally, Robert F. The 2024 election season is shaping up to be anything but a routine encounter between an incumbent and a challenger.įormer President Donald Trump, who is facing 91 criminal charges in cases brought by the federal government and four different states, is ahead in five of six key battleground states, according to the latest polling by the New York Times. ![]()
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